Just over three weeks into a cease-fire that has brought the Gaza Strip relative peace, Israel and Hamas are already moving toward a return to war.
The combatants have backed each other into a corner, with Hamas saying it won’t release hostages until it gets more humanitarian supplies, and Israel saying it will hit pause on the agreement and start fighting again if the militant group doesn’t let the hostages go free.
President Trump, who helped close the deal before taking office, added a volatile new variable by laying down an ultimatum of his own, demanding that Hamas release all the hostages it holds, not just the ones due to be freed this week under the deal’s prescribed stages. The comments have emboldened Israel and alarmed Hamas.
Palestinians fill up containers with water, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip February 4, 2025. REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa
This three-way game of chicken will come to a head on Saturday when the next round of releases is scheduled. Israel’s military has ordered more troops to Gaza and told them to prepare to fight. After Trump’s ultimatum, Hamas gave orders to its fighters in Gaza to go into hiding, revert to safer communication and prepare for combat, people familiar with the matter said.
Whatever the result, the road ahead will be difficult. The escalating dispute foreshadows a much more serious crisis that mediators expect to build over the next three weeks before the first phase of the truce ends.
Mediators believe the current crisis can be resolved and Saturday’s exchange of hostages for prisoners can be salvaged. They said the fact Hamas threatened not to release the hostages well in advance of the scheduled exchange indicates the militant group was hoping to work it out and not spark a crisis.
Talks were already under way to work out the issues that led to the standoff by increasing the flow of goods like tents needed for shelter, mediators said.
David Meidan, a former senior Israeli official in the Mossad who helped negotiate the 2011 deal with Hamas that freed Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit from captivity in Gaza, said he believed Hamas wants to maintain the agreement and proceed to phase two. He said the militant group may have miscalculated how its ultimatum would escalate.
An Israeli soldier sits on a tank on the Israeli side of the border with Gaza, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as seen from Israel, February 11, 2025. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
“I think Hamas understands it doesn’t have much to gain from the continuation of the war, and what it wants most is to end the war,” Meidan said. “It has few alternatives.”
Israel’s government, despite issuing some mixed messages Tuesday, has yet to publicly echo Trump’s maximalist demand for all the hostages to be released on Saturday.
However, the Israeli government did say it would suspend negotiations for follow-on phases of the deal, in which more hostages would be released in exchange for an end to the war. Mediators are concerned that negotiations over the next phase of the deal, which were supposed to begin last week, now face further delays.
The cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, which brought a pause to 16 months of fighting in Gaza, was structured with multiple phases to defer discussions of the most contentious issues. Under the first stage, 33 Israeli hostages are to be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners over the course of 42 days ending March 1.
A woman cries as Palestinian prisoners are greeted after being released from an Israeli jail, as part of a hostages-prisoners swap and a ceasefire deal in Gaza between Hamas and Israel, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, February 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hatem Khaled TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
The second phase of the deal is considered far more complicated. It entails Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent end to the fighting in exchange for all the remaining living hostages.
Israel has said it won’t end the war with Hamas still in power in Gaza and members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government have threatened to leave the ruling coalition if he agrees to end the fighting. Hamas has refused to bow out.
“We have repeatedly complained and warned Israel that they are running out the clock,” one of the Arab mediators said.
The most serious crisis yet in the talks has been exacerbated by Trump’s proposal to move Gaza’s two million Palestinians to neighboring Arab countries while the U.S. redevelops the enclave as an international destination, mediators in the talks say.
The current crisis began on Monday when Hamas said it would postpone the release of the next Israeli hostages and accused Israel of numerous violations of the agreement, including failure to provide agreed-upon humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip’s displaced population.
Trump warned Hamas that he would “let hell break out” if all the hostages weren’t returned Saturday. Netanyahu issued an ultimatum of his own on Tuesday, threatening that if the three hostages weren’t released, Israel would return to the fighting.
A Palestinian man carries a water container as he walks towards his shelter, set up amidst the rubble of his house, on a rainy day, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip February 11, 2025. REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa
But some far-right lawmakers believe that Netanyahu hasn’t gone far enough and should have demanded all of the hostages instead of only a few, an indication that Trump’s comments may have made it harder for Israel to be flexible.
“This is simply a disgrace. President Trump gives the government the green light to rain fire and hell on Gaza if all our hostages aren’t released, and the government prefers to continue on its reckless path,” said far-right lawmaker Itamar Ben-Gvir on X, who quit the government over the cease-fire deal.
A Palestinian man stands atop a building destroyed during the Israeli offensive, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip February 5, 2025. REUTERS/Hatem Khaled TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
Netanyahu on Tuesday demanded that Hamas release the hostages without specifying whether he meant all the hostages, as Trump had called for, or only those due to be released Saturday. Attempts by an Israeli official to clarify Netanyahu’s comments created more confusion.
The official initially said Israel wanted nine hostages in the coming days—all the living hostages covered by the first phase of the deal. The official later said Israel wanted three on Saturday and the other six released in an accelerated fashion but not necessarily on Saturday, a message that also was communicated to mediators in the talks.
Another far-right party led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has threatened to quit the government if Israel proceeds to the second phase, putting Netanyahu’s ruling coalition at risk. Critics of Netanyahu, including the families of hostages, have accused the prime minister of giving priority to the survival of his ruling coalition over saving the hostages, who they say are running out of time.
“Netanyahu understands continuing to phase two could mean the end of his rule. His dilemma is his government versus phase two and ending the war,” said Meidan, the former negotiator. “He understands it will have political costs.”
Several families have learned from the released hostages that their loved ones are alive and face grueling conditions, increasing their sense of urgency. Most of the relatives still held, all young men, aren’t included in the first phase.
Vicki Cohen, mother of 20-year-old soldier Nimrod Cohen who is held hostage in Gaza, said she was extremely worried by the developments. She said she didn’t understand why Israel refused to discuss the second phase of the deal.
As a soldier, her son would only be released in the second phase. The Cohen family learned from a recently released hostage that he saw their son in the tunnels in Gaza several months ago.
“Israel is not doing enough,” she said. “Every day is critical.”
Write to Anat Peled at anat.peled@wsj.com and Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com
