The new administration of President-elect Donald Trump is poised to make a number of changes affecting the economy, business, markets, the environment and America’s foreign policy.
While Republicans won control of the Senate, the House remained up for grabs, and a Democratic victory in that chamber could throw up obstacles to Trump’s agenda.
Here’s a look at what Trump’s win means for immigration, taxes, business, foreign policy, healthcare, energy and the environment.
Immigration
Trump made mass deportations a marquee promise of his campaign, and his transition team is already at work trying to turn that proposal into a reality.
The President-elect has said he would revive major policies from his first term, including the travel ban on Muslim-majority countries—the list of which is likely to expand—and Remain in Mexico, which requires migrants asking for asylum to live outside the country for the duration of their cases.
Many of his policies were held up in court for much of his first four years in office, but a series of court victories shortly before Trump left office in 2021 means he is on sounder legal footing to now see them through. But don’t expect his mass deportation to be easy. Trump will need far more manpower than the 6,000 officers employed by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and blue states—where most immigrants in the country illegally live—won’t be inclined to help. —Michelle Hackman
Taxes
Trump’s election makes tax cuts likely. He campaigned on a series of tax-cut slogans— no tax on tips , no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security benefits. The proposals come atop Trump’s plans to extend the tax cuts he signed into law in 2017 and are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025.
Some tax-cut extensions are likely, because Democrats also want to extend most of the Trump tax law. Still, fitting everything together could prove difficult.
Congressional Republicans have been focused on extending the main pieces of the 2017 law: the lower rates, larger standard deduction, narrower estate tax, bigger child tax credit and a 20% deduction for closely held businesses. Extending those parts would shrink federal revenue by more than $4 trillion over a decade, and Republicans are divided over whether they can do all of that.
Trump’s new tax-cut ideas make the calculus even more complicated. Additionally, Trump has said he now opposes one of the crucial provisions that raised money to offset those lower taxes—the $10,000 cap on deductions for state and local taxes. He has proposed repealing clean-energy tax credits, but some Republicans are reluctant because the projects funded by those incentives are being built in their districts.— Richard Rubin
Business
Broad-based tariffs promised by Trump would likely hurt economic growth and worsen inflation, economists say. That kind of slowdown would reduce S&P 500 profits by a middle single-digit percentage, though not uniformly. Retailers, car manufacturers and makers of semiconductors and other tech hardware would likely be among the hardest hit, said Kurt Reiman, co-head of ElectionWatch at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Businesses in many sectors would be affected by Trump’s immigration plans. Agriculture, retail and leisure-and-hospitality companies would likely be hit hardest if a crackdown targets immigrants holding lower-skilled jobs, said Gregory Daco , chief economist at Ernst & Young. Limiting legal immigration of people working in higher-skilled positions would more likely hurt the financial, technology and healthcare sectors.
Curbing immigration also would likely drive inflation higher by shrinking the labor supply. “That leads to wage pressures, and exacerbates costs,” Daco said.
The expense related to indefinitely extending a range of provisions from the 2017 tax overhaul would dim the chances of a new, across-the-board cut in the corporate income-tax rate. Still, limited tax breaks for manufacturers could find support, and a proposal to exempt taxes on tips could help some industries.
A range of business priorities with broad bipartisan support are likely to see action, including bonus depreciation and full research-and-development expensing. Both tax breaks have been phasing out under the 2017 tax overhaul.
When it comes to Big Tech, Trump favors a more “hands off” approach to artificial intelligence, calling for the repeal of the Biden administration’s AI executive order and favoring what his platform calls “development rooted in free speech and human flourishing.”
There is no indication that he will pursue the Biden administration’s antitrust efforts against Big Tech, although his platform identifies Silicon Valley companies as engaging in “illegal censorship.” On maintaining U.S. tech dominance, Trump might continue efforts established during his presidency when he worked to curtail China’s access to cutting-edge technology and called for increased spending on AI and quantum computing.— Theo Francis and Thomas Loftus
Wall Street
Trump’s return to the White House is expected to be positive for big banks and Wall Street.
Hedge-fund titans and other Wall Street executives backed his campaign and could play a role in his administration. Among his backers are Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman , Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman and billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson . Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick is co-chair of Trump’s transition team .
Regulatory hurdles to large deals are likely to subside, and corporate taxes are likely to remain low, spurring business for banks. Trump’s efforts to lower interest rates would likely boost bank profits in the short term.
Dealmaking has shown signs of bouncing back this year but still has a way to go to get back to its 2021 record levels. Regulatory scrutiny of Big Tech deals has been holding some of that back, especially in the $20 billion-plus category. Bankers expect that to get easier. They also anticipate relief on financial regulation. Trump is expected to fire the heads of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
There is an expectation that Michael Barr , vice chair for supervision at the Fed, will leave and the new Basel capital rules he was the lead regulator on will either be watered down or abandoned. A Fed proposal to lower interchange fees that large banks collect on debit-card payments likely will be revised, bankers said.
Other Trump proposals may hinder banks, including his adoption of cryptocurrency and his threats of trade wars.
Trump has talked about embracing a future with crypto and “leaving the slow and outdated big banks behind.” His sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump helped launch the crypto platform World Liberty Financial.
Some members of Trump’s first administration and bankers have been discussing plans on ending U.S. government control of the mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, The Wall Street Journal reported. The government’s stakes in Fannie and Freddie could be valued at hundreds of billions of dollars, bankers estimate.— AnnaMaria Andriotis & Dylan Tokar
National security
The biggest national-security question hanging over Trump is whether his “America First” worldview will prove superior to the post-World War II bipartisan consensus, or whether it will isolate the U.S. on the world stage and leave a dangerous vacuum abroad.
Former Trump officials suggest he would withdraw the U.S. from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, ending American leadership in the decades-old trans-Atlantic alliance and exposing European allies to possible aggression from Russia. Trump has said he would look to end the Russia-Ukraine war as soon as possible. And he has also signaled far more openness to letting Israel continue the war against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon despite the mounting humanitarian toll.
Trump supporters say he will extricate the U.S. from foreign wars and right-size America’s military footprint abroad.— Alexander Ward
Foreign policy
China
A rocky road lies ahead in U.S. relations with China following Trump’s win, as he has said he would push through across-the-board 60% tariffs meant to halt the country’s export machine. If imposed, they are likely to spark aggressive retaliation.
Trump’s first trade war with China was also based on tariffs, but it failed to achieve its goals of reducing the U.S. trade deficit even as it sharpened differences between the two powers and damaged relations between them. Round Two promises a more bruising fight. It could also erase remaining cooperation from Beijing on issues such as climate change and fentanyl.
Still, China could take some positives from a second Trump term if he upends American alliances from Europe to Australia and NATO, which have focused on countering and containing China and its ally Russia.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is likely to seize opportunities to manage ties with Trump on a personal level in hopes of persuading the president-elect that it is in American interests to dial back U.S. support for Taiwan, which Xi has told his generals they should be able to bring under Beijing’s control by 2027.— James T. Areddy
The Middle East
Trump has signaled he plans to disrupt the Middle East’s broader march toward war. While he hasn’t outlined specifics, he has suggested that he could leverage his relationships with the leadership of U.S. allies in the Middle East and bring more pressure on Iran to stop the hostilities.
Trump arguably had the most foreign-policy success in the region during his first term, including the Abraham Accords in 2020 that normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states.
Foreign-policy experts have said Trump is likely to try to build on the Abraham Accords, widening recognition of Israel to Saudi Arabia. It is a tall order, with the Saudis saying the price of normalization with Israel is a defense treaty with Washington and a path to a Palestinian state.
The country with the most to lose is Iran. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the nuclear deal with Iran, snapped back sanctions on Tehran and ordered the attack that killed a top Iranian general, Qassem Soleimani . But he has also made enigmatic comments in recent weeks about the need to make another nuclear deal with Iran.— Michael Amon
Ukraine
Trump has said that, if he were to win, he would end the war before taking office in January, without specifying how he would accomplish that. He has often pointed to his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin .
During the campaign, Trump frequently complained about the price tag of Ukraine aid. His running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R., Ohio), has said that a possible deal to end the fighting could include Ukraine giving up territory to Russia and providing guarantees that the country wouldn’t join NATO. Both are in line with Putin’s goals, though they would be opposed by both Ukraine and most U.S. allies in Europe.— Jane Lytvynenko
Energy
While Trump has said he would “drill, baby, drill,” analysts say it is unlikely oil-and-gas producers would open the floodgates. Companies have been abiding by Wall Street’s demand that they return cash to shareholders via buybacks and dividends—instead of plowing it back into production.
Trump has said he would issue faster permits for drilling on federal lands, along with streamlined approvals for pipelines.
Analysts expect Trump would roll back regulations, including on emissions of methane. That could cut costs for fossil-fuel companies, but is a potential headwind for companies that export products into markets with strict emission rules. Also shaping up as potential targets for a Trump administration are fuel-efficiency and emissions standards for cars and trucks, and greenhouse-gas limits on new power plants.
The renewable energy sector is likely to face setbacks. The Republican has excoriated offshore wind turbines. Trump has said he would rescind all unspent funds in Biden’s signature climate law, which allocates billions of dollars in tax credits to clean-energy projects. Many red states benefit from the law, however, and people close to Trump have said his administration would bring a scalpel to the legislation, not an ax. —Benoît Morenne
Healthcare
Trump has vowed to protect Medicare and bring down healthcare costs overall. Despite his previous ambition to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, he now says he plans to keep it and improve it.
He said he would bring down prescription-drug costs but hasn’t said how he would do so. In a July video, he promised to use tariffs to encourage more domestic manufacturing of critical medicines.
Trump has also embraced the “Make America Healthy Again” agenda championed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the onetime independent presidential candidate, and has said that Kennedy would have a say in appointments to health agencies. Kennedy has said he would target obesity and chronic disease and has mentioned microplastics and artificial food dyes as culprits. He has also said agencies such as the Food and Drug Administration are beholden to the industries they regulate.
Trump has said abortion restrictions should be decided by states. He has sought to distance himself from efforts within his party, such as the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, a conservative policy blueprint written by former Trump officials and allies, that called for measures to limit abortions. —Liz Essley Whyte
Environment
Trump rolled back more than 100 environmental rules during his first term, including Obama-era regulations on power plants and cars. He withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 Paris climate agreement signed by more than 190 nations.
In a Sept. 29 speech in Erie, Pa., he called policies to address climate change “one of the greatest scams of all time.”
On the campaign trail, Trump said he would repeal many of the Biden administration’s climate policies outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act, which earmarked $369 billion for various green incentives such as electric-vehicle rebates and tax breaks for clean energy manufacturing.
Trump has distanced himself from Project 2025. A section of the document written by a former Trump Commerce official calls for breaking up the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, turning over weather forecasting from the National Weather Service to private firms and replacing the federal disaster warning system with apps and websites. The blueprint also aims to limit federal climate research.— Eric Niller
