Turkey is witnessing a major political upheaval following the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a key opposition figure and potential challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the 2028 elections.
Turkish authorities have accused İmamoğlu of corruption and alleged links to terrorism, a move widely condemned as a politically motivated attempt to sideline opponents. His arrest comes amid broader government crackdowns on political dissent, raising concerns about the state of democracy in Turkey. Meanwhile the political turmoil has already sent shockwaves through financial markets, with the Turkish lira weakening and investor confidence rattled.
As Turkey faces increasing political and economic uncertainty, TO BHMA International edition speaks with Dr. Ioannis N Grigoriadis, Senior Research Fellow at ELIAMEP and expert in Turkish politics, to break down the implications of these developments.
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, from the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), addresses his supporters from the top of a bus after giving testimony to judicial authorities at the Justice Palace, known as Caglayan Courthouse, in Istanbul, Turkey, January 31, 2025. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
What are the political implications of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s arrest?
Turkey’s judiciary has become an instrument for containing, suppressing, or neutralizing Turkish opposition forces. In regards to Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s arrest, it is important to highlight that there have been several incidents over the past weeks and months- in the form of arrests- that have forewarned of this. The incidents made it increasingly clear that the government would find an opportunity to move on İmamoğlu as well.
On Wednesday and within a few hours of one another, several announcements were made against İmamoğlu. Istanbul University announced its decision to cancel İmamoğlu’s degree, Turkish authorities announced that it would detain İmamoğlu on suspected criminal collaborations with the Kurdish PKK, and he has been accused of establishing a criminal network in the municipalities.
The incidents mark a sharp deterioration or, perhaps better to say, acceleration of a direction that Turkey is moving in over the past decade- from a democratic country to a hybrid form, to an autocratic regime. When we are looking back on events in the future, today could be noted as a milestone in this process.
How do you think Turkey’s institutions, political groups and civil society will react?
While the state of Turkish democracy in the recent past has clearly not been satisfactory, there was at least a true opposition force. What happened on Wednesday is going to test this. At this point the situation is still under development so two key questions that come to mind are: Will Turkey’s judiciary uphold something that is purely political? Also, will the opposition and civil society organize some resistance initiatives?
Supporters of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu gather outside the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality building to protest the detention of Imamoglu, in Istanbul, Turkey, March 19, 2025. REUTERS/Murad Sezer
The government has banned protests until Sunday but despite that there are plans to organize around the municipality. It remains to be seen how the opposition and the civil society are going to protest against and how the government will respond.
How do you think the detention of opposition figures will affect Turkey’s international standing, particularly its relations with the EU and the US?
This is an interesting question. The Turkish government may feel that its importance has increased in the international sphere, so perhaps it feels that it won’t find resistance and may be able to ‘get away’ with its moves against the political opposition, as well as its anti-democratic practices.
Will the international community take note? Democracy and rule of law used to be important for the international community but whether or not the EU will uphold these principles with Turkey is a question for Brussels. It should be noted that Turkish democrats feel betrayed by recent political events where European leaders revealed that they have been ready to promote short-term political objectives at the expense of democracy in Turkey.
As for the US, the same question applies- will the new Trump administration place any significance on the rule of law in its dealings with Turkey, or will it be merely transactional?
Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan meets with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Ankara, Turkey, December 17, 2024. Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Turkish Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS
How could growing political instability in Turkey impact Greek-Turkish relations?
I don’t see how it will have an effect in the short-term as long as the Turkish government stays stable. In fact, it may not be a factor at all. Greece is committed to a positive agenda with Turkey and along these lines, there is an important factor that has not been given much attention in Greece. This is the slow but certain commencement of a peace process in Cyprus, with the support of the United Nations. Small steps have been made such as the designation of a new envoy and establishment of confidence building measures. The Cyprus peace process may generate positive news, and then the Greek government may not be in a position to raise objections about the state of democracy in Turkey.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres attends a press conference on the day of a meeting to discuss future of stalled peace talks over the divided island of Cyprus at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, March 18, 2025. REUTERS/Pierre Albouy/Pool
With the Turkish lira weakening, how might recent political instability affect Turkey’s economy and financial markets in the short and long term?
Turkey followed unsound fiscal policies for many years. But more recently it is trying to fix the issues. Perhaps the Turkish government’s move with İmamoğlu is an indication that the government feels it is moving in the right direction and has enough financial reserves to withstand market turmoil stemming from the political situation.
Dr. Ioannis N. Grigoriadis is an Associate Professor and Jean Monnet Chair of European Studies at the Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Bilkent University and a Research Fellow at the Hellenic Foundation of European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP).
