Japan could suffer an economic loss of up to $1.81 trillion and see nearly 300,000 deaths if a long-feared megaquake strikes off its Pacific coast, according to a government report released on Monday. The catastrophic event, expected to originate from the Nankai Trough, could trigger massive tsunamis and widespread destruction.
According to Reuters, the latest Cabinet Office estimate significantly raises the anticipated damage from the previous projection of $1.43 trillion, factoring in inflation and new terrain data that expand the potential flood zones. The projected economic hit—270.3 trillion yen—amounts to nearly half of Japan’s total gross domestic product (GDP).
Japan, one of the world’s most earthquake-prone nations, faces about an 80% chance of experiencing a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake along the Nankai Trough, a 900-kilometer-long seismic zone where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting beneath the Eurasian Plate. This region, which stretches along the country’s southwestern Pacific coast, has historically produced some of Japan’s most destructive earthquakes, with major tremors occurring roughly once every 100 to 150 years.
Under the worst-case scenario, a magnitude 9 earthquake striking in winter at night could leave 1.23 million people displaced and cause 298,000 deaths from tsunamis and building collapses.
The government issued its first-ever megaquake advisory last year after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred on the edge of the Nankai Trough. The advisory warned of a “relatively higher chance” of a devastating quake similar to the magnitude 9 disaster in 2011, which triggered a tsunami and nuclear meltdown, killing over 15,000 people.
