Greece, renowned as it is for its uniquely diverse landscape of rugged mountains, lush forests and thousands of islands dotting the Aegean and Ionian seas, is also one of the most seismically active regions in the world.
The high seismic occurrence arises from the country’s location at the juncture of the European and African tectonic plates, with the interaction between the two generating geophysical stress and frequent tremors on the earth’s surface.
Professor Efthymios Lekkas, an expert in Dynamic Tectonic Applied Geology & Disaster Management and President of the Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization, emphasizes that this intense seismic activity, combined with other geodynamic and hydro-meteorological conditions, has shaped Greece’s distinctive physical geography, some of whose characteristics are unique on a global scale.
Seismic Activity and the Historical Context
Seismic activity is interwoven into the country’s historical journey from antiquity into modern times. A striking example is the 7.2-magnitude earthquake which historical accounts tell us struck Sparta in 464 BC. The scale of the destruction was immense, with twenty thousand lives lost and the city left in ruins.
Rising Concerns About a Potential Earthquake
Recent seismic events such as the earthquake that hit neighboring Turkey in 2023, leading to the death of thousands of people and leveling the afflicted areas, have heightened concerns over where and when a major quake could strike in Greece.
While there are some areas across Greece with higher seismicity—such as the Ionian Islands, Crete and the Dodecanese—and others with moderate or low seismicity, Professor Lekkas clarifies that seismic history is not a definitive predictor. He cites the major quake that hit Grevena, a typically low-seismicity area, in 1995.
The geologist stresses the importance of a proactive approach, stating “Our duty is to strengthen our structures and remain vigilant, avoiding reliance on speculative predictions.”
An Istanbul Quake Could Potentially Trigger Seismic Activity in Greece
Nonetheless, there is speculation that a major earthquake could strike Istanbul in the near future, potentially triggering seismic activity in Greece. Lekkas does not rule out the possibility, as he admits that the section of the North Anatolian Fault to the south of Turkey’s largest city, which extends into the Aegean Sea, has not generated a major earthquake in decades.
“According to converging studies by scientists worldwide, an Istanbul earthquake is considered overdue and expected to occur in the foreseeable future, although the exact timing cannot be determined,” he admits.
Given that the 7.6 magnitude earthquake which struck İzmit some 100 km to the east of Bosphorus in 1999 affected Greece, concerns about the transfer of seismic activity from Istanbul to the Aegean area are understandable. However, the professor points out that this event should not be seen as a precedent for the effects of a potential Istanbul earthquake. “It is necessary to first examine the geometric, kinematic, and dynamic characteristics of the impending earthquake before drawing reliable conclusions about its impact on the Aegean region,” Lekkas explains.
Building Earthquake-Resilient Infrastructure
Greece has made remarkable strides in earthquake preparedness through the development of anti-seismic architecture. Regulations requiring buildings to be ‘earthquake-proofed’ were first introduced in 1959, and catastrophic earthquakes such as the ones that hit Thessaloniki in 1978 and Athens three years later in 1981 led to significant changes to the laws, ensuring the durability and safety of newly-built structures and upgrading older ones.
Today, Greek infrastructure is regarded as highly resilient to seismic events. Lekkas is reassuring, agreeing that structures are indeed designed to withstand the frequent seismic activity.
“It is clear that Greece’s built environment is at a high level of seismic resilience,” he asserts. The impact of earthquakes in Greece, in terms both of human casualties and damage to buildings and infrastructure, is among the lowest among countries with similar seismic risks, according to the scientist.
A collaboration between Greek engineers and geoscientists coordinated by the Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization has led to the development of a regulatory framework that fully meets the latest global standards. According to Lekkas, this framework ensures safety even in the case of earthquakes significantly more powerful than those which typically occur in Greece.
Predicting Earthquakes Remains Beyond Our Reach
The science of predicting earthquakes remains an elusive goal, despite the existence of new technologies such as satellite data, GPS, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), and seafloor seismometers.
Despite efforts made globally in recent decades, determining the exact time an earthquake will strike, its location and magnitude, remains beyond our reach, with no prospect of it becoming a reality in the coming decades, according to Lekkas. “The inability to predict is primarily due to the inherently chaotic nature of the phenomenon,” he notes.
Prioritizing Prevention and Resilience
Acknowledging the unpredictability of earthquakes, the global scientific community has redirected its efforts in two other directions: improving seismic resilience and mitigating the effects of earthquakes, Lekkas notes. The focus is now on raising awareness, educating the public, and further enhancing the seismic resilience of structures, especially in earthquake-prone regions. Large-scale preparedness exercises, like the 2023 field drill in Crete, exemplify efforts to strengthen Greece’s readiness to respond to seismic events.
Lekkas concludes by emphasizing that local governments have to focus on prevention as the single most critical stage in managing earthquakes. Fostering a culture of preparedness within local communities will help to minimize impacts of all types, from earthquakes but also from other natural disasters.
