Greece has been experiencing a notable increased seismic activity recently, with earthquakes originating from different regions of the country, epicenters range from Mount Athos in the north, to Kefalonia in the west, and as far south as the island of Crete. This heightened frequency of incidents has fueled public concern over the looming threat of a major earthquake as well as the nation’s readiness to confront such a catastrophe.
Efthymios Lekkas, Professor of Dynamics, Tectonics, Applied Geology, and Natural Disaster Management at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, and President of the Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization (EPPO) speaks to To Vima International Edition addressing Greece’s seismic reality. He highlights the steps necessary to prepare the country for a potential great earthquake, aiming to minimize its impacts and safeguard lives.
Greece is known for its high seismic activity. Could you explain why the region is so prone to earthquakes, and how concerned are you about a future mega earthquake striking?
The Greek region is characterized by high seismic activity, a consequence of the movement of the European plate toward the south and its collision with the African plate. This intense seismic activity, along with other geodynamic and hydro-meteorological conditions, has shaped Greece’s distinctive physical-geographical environment, featuring unique characteristics on a global scale.
Seismic activity has been intertwined with Greece’s historical journey from antiquity to the present day. In 1991, a geological study was conducted to determine the location of the epicenter and the intensity of an earthquake that struck Sparta in 464 BC. The conclusion of the study suggests that if the earthquake of 464 BC occurred at the location identified in this research, its magnitude would have been approximately 7.2 on the Surface Wave Magnitude scale.
In Greece, there are areas with higher seismicity, such as the Ionian Islands, Crete, and the Dodecanese, as well as areas with moderate or low seismicity.
As the president of the Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization, I am not concerned about any specific area because the next major earthquake could occur either in a high-seismicity area or even in a low-seismicity area, as was the case in Grevena in 1995.
Our duty is to comprehensively fortify the Greek territory and avoid being misled by uncertain predictions, which divert attention from our central goal.
How would a major earthquake in Istanbul affect seismic activity in Greece?
Globally, the North Anatolian Fault, which extends from near the Caspian Sea to the Aegean and spans approximately 1,500 kilometers, is a model field of research. This fault is divided into 13 major segments, 12 of which have been activated and produced significant earthquakes in recent decades.
However, the segment south of Istanbul has not yet generated a major earthquake. According to converging studies by scientists worldwide, this earthquake is considered overdue and is expected to occur in the foreseeable future, although the exact timing cannot be determined.
Given that the 1999 İzmit earthquake in Nicomedia affected the Greek region, concerns about the transfer of seismic activity from Istanbul to the Aegean area are understandable. However, this does not set a precedent for the potential Istanbul earthquake. It is necessary first to examine the geometric, kinematic, and dynamic characteristics of the impending earthquake before drawing reliable conclusions about its impact on the Aegean region.
In your opinion, are Greek buildings and infrastructure adequately designed to withstand the frequent seismic activity?
It is clear that Greece’s built environment is at a high level of seismic resilience. The impact of earthquakes in Greece—referring to human casualties and damage to buildings and infrastructure—is among the lowest compared to other countries with similar seismic hazards.
This is the result of the collaboration of Greek scientists, including engineers and geoscientists, who work under the coordination of the Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization. Together, they have developed a regulatory framework that fully meets the most modern requirements, even for earthquakes significantly larger than those typically occurring in Greece.
How accurate are the current methods for predicting earthquakes, and do you see a future where we will be able to predict earthquakes with greater accuracy?
Despite efforts made over recent decades at a global level, the prediction of earthquakes—in terms of determining the exact time, location, and magnitude—remains unattainable, with no prospects of achieving this in the coming decades. This inability to predict is primarily due to the inherently chaotic nature of the phenomenon.
Recognizing this challenge, the global scientific community has redirected its efforts toward seismic resilience and mitigating the effects of earthquakes. Priorities now focus on raising awareness, education, and further enhancing the seismic resilience of structures.
What role does climate or weather, if any, play in seismic activity in Greece?
Hydrometeorological phenomena, which occur in the atmosphere, in no way affect geodynamic phenomena that take place beneath the Earth’s surface.
Considering the recent tragic events with the floods in Valencia, Spain, how has climate change influenced the increase in the frequency of natural disasters in Europe?
The climate crisis is essentially characterized by the increased frequency of phenomena, their broader geographical scope, the succession of extreme events, and the greater intensity of these phenomena, leading to a sharp rise in disasters. Events such as Ianos, Daniel, and the floods in Valencia are snapshots of the ongoing climate crisis, the effects of which are already manifesting across Europe.
How prepared is Europe to deal with such natural disasters? How prepared is Greece?
In Greece, preparedness—specifically prevention—is at a high level, despite the fact that such phenomena have become more destructive on a global scale. Over the past four years, we have made significant strides in prevention and overall management. It may sound surprising, but it is not untrue to say that many European countries lag behind in this area. I support this claim with specific examples, such as the case of Valencia.
What measures do you recommend for local governments and citizens to ensure safety and preparedness in the event of an earthquake?
Prevention is one of the most critical stages in managing earthquakes and other natural phenomena. Scientific research, risk analysis, vulnerability assessments of systems, risk determination, operational planning, equipment readiness, education, public awareness, preparedness drills at all levels, and especially full-scale field exercises—such as the one conducted last April in Crete, which was the largest exercise ever held in Greece—collectively reduce overall risk. This means minimizing all types of impacts, not only from earthquakes but from any natural hazard.
As a scientist, what is the biggest challenge you face in the study of earthquakes, and what advice would you give to young scientists interested in this field?
As a Professor of Natural Disaster Management, I would encourage young scientists to gain experience by participating in scientific, technical, operational, and humanitarian missions in the aftermath of major disasters, not only in Greece but also around the world.
Engaging with theoretical models developed in the laboratory—while undoubtedly important—cannot yield full value unless they are validated under real-world conditions. Office-based scientists will never achieve full scientific development unless they literally step into the field, where major destructive geodynamic and hydrometeorological phenomena unfold.
