Multiple surveys and statistics indicate that economically advanced nations are experiencing a serious fertility crisis. But how will global populations shift by 2100? While Asia currently leads in population growth, UN data predicts this trend will become less dominant by the turn of the century.
At present, the five most populous countries are in Asia—China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh—alongside two from Latin America, one from Africa, and one from North America. However, by 2100, African nations like Nigeria, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are expected to rise into the top 10 most populous countries.
Only one European country in 2020 ranked among the largest, but by the turn of the century, Europe is not expected to feature any nation in the top ranks.
In 2022, the European Union recorded its lowest number of live births since 1960, with only 3.88 million babies born, the first time the figure dropped below 4 million. The fertility rate in the EU also fell, nearing levels last seen two decades ago, leaving the EU with one of the world’s lowest fertility rates—measured by the number of live births per woman.
The number of children born worldwide is already in decline, but with an average of 2.3 children per woman, global population growth continues. According to UN estimates, if the fertility rate keeps falling at the current rate, it could reach 1.9 children per woman by 2100, at which point the world population will begin to shrink.
Regarding Greece, according to a recent bulletin by the Institute of Demographic Research (IDR) on Greek birth rates, over the 2020-22 period, the gap between deaths and births widened in the country, with 2010 being the landmark year when annual deaths outnumbered annual births.
The number of deaths in the country stood at 169,000, compared to only 113,000 births in 2020–22, a figure confirming the ongoing fertility crisis in the country.
The authors of the specific paper quoted by the institute acknowledged that although the number of deaths during the pandemic increased significantly, the number of births is forecast to continue to drop in the coming years.
with information from Euronews and Statista
