In two in-depth pieces on the Greek economy and the successful early repayment of its debt, the German-based weekly newspaper Ziet and RND (RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland) highlight why and how the small Mediterranean country achieved this impressive feat. Entitled “The Economic Situation of Greece: What No One Expected,” the long piece in the weekly newspaper Zeit, […]
The Greek Minister of National Economy and Finance, Kostis Hatzidakis, expressed his satisfaction with Scope's upgrade of the Greek economy.
Greece continues to outpace the EU average in terms of growth rates, despite signs of a slump. The outlook for 2024 and 2025, however, indicates a diminishing expansion in the face of rising national debt.
The baseline scenario assumes that primary budget surpluses will be maintained in the coming years, supporting Greece’s credit rating trajectory.
Therefore, there is need for policy interventions in order to boost demand, stabilize the labor market and support industrial production.
Once at risk of default, Greece has made notable progress in debt reduction over the past few years
Major issues that are expected to intensify if not addressed, include the high current account deficit, the substantial investment gap, low productivity, and the question of long-term growth.
The corresponding forecasts by the Greek government are 2.2% for 2024 and 2.3% for 2025
Additionally, a 300 million euro Guarantee Fund will be created with the European Investment Bank, leading to 1.5 billion euros in leverage
Moody’s took a “stricter” stance compared to the other agencies when in Sept. of 2023 it refused to grant Greece the investment grade.
Last April’s positive outlook issued by the agency lays the groundwork for another potential upgrade.
Yannis Stournaras addressed the 'Risk Management & Compliance Conference' as a keynote speaker on Monday
Labor market conditions also continued to improve in the first half of this year, as the unemployment rate fell to 9.6% in June, the lowest in 15 years.
For 2024, the growth rate of the Greek economy is now expected to reach 2.14%, up from the previous estimate of 2.09%.
Central Greece, Western Greece, and the Peloponnese are particularly susceptible to forest fires, while Eastern Macedonia and Thrace are vulnerable due to disparities in per capita GDP. Attica stands out for its extreme vulnerability due to high population density.
Three of the four bankers have already announced dividends for 2023's results, the first such distribution of profits after three successive bailouts
Goldman Sachs sees an upgrade of the Greek stock market
However, the OECD highlights challenges including the need to enhance productivity and fiscal adjustment due to high debt levels.
However, the report points to a persistent challenge in the form of commercial credit risk, which remains high at 8 out of 10, ranking Greece 104th internationally
Nevertheless, the article also highlights some of the challenges facing the country, with a falling birthrate and labor shortages posing a threat to the long-term outlook, whereas natural disasters partially attributed to climate change, such as major wildfires and unprecedented flooding, are straining state finances