NASA has flagged a newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, as one to watch closely. With a diameter between 130 and 300 feet (40–90 meters), this space rock has a 2.3% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032—an extremely low probability, but high enough to warrant global attention.
A Growing Concern?
Initially detected on December 27, 2024, by a Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile, 2024 YR4 quickly made its way onto NASA’s automated Sentry risk list, which tracks asteroids with a nonzero probability of impact. While most asteroids that appear on this list eventually get ruled out as threats, this one has crossed the 1% probability threshold, triggering formal notifications to global planetary defense organizations, including the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs.
NASA’s latest calculations show the asteroid has a Torino Scale rating of 3—a rare classification indicating an asteroid large enough to cause localized damage in the event of an impact. Although this raises concern, scientists stress that the most likely outcome is a complete miss.
The Science Behind the Uncertainty
Predicting an asteroid’s path is a complex task. Right now, 2024 YR4’s orbit has been partially mapped, but additional observations are needed to refine its trajectory. The James Webb Space Telescope is set to observe the asteroid in March 2025, helping scientists measure its exact size and composition.
If 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, it would do so at a staggering speed of 17 kilometers per second (38,000 mph). The potential impact corridor spans across the eastern Pacific Ocean, South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. However, experts note that even in the worst-case scenario, the asteroid would cause regional destruction rather than a global catastrophe.
What Happens Next?
Astronomers will continue tracking 2024 YR4 until April 2025, after which it will become too faint to observe. It will reappear in June 2028, allowing for further refinements to its trajectory.
For now, the public can rest assured that NASA and the International Asteroid Warning Network are keeping a close eye on the situation. While 2024 YR4 is a notable case for planetary defense, history suggests that the asteroid will likely be ruled out as a hazard in the coming years.
