One of Greece’s leading scientists says it’s too early to rule out a volcanic eruption around Santorini, but if it occurs, there will be clear warning signs.
Scientific and Political Discord
Disagreements within Greece’s scientific community over the ongoing and intense seismic activity around Santorini are escalating and tensions between politicians and scientists have also grown, leading to the resignation of highly respected Greek seismologist Akis Tselentis on Tuesday.
Tselentis cited political interference in scientific research as the reason for his departure.
Meanwhile, a well-respected scientist and Chair of Earth Sciences at the Academy of Athens stated in a televised interview on Tuesday that the earthquakes are intensifying and spreading. Given this, he argued, it is premature to entirely rule out a volcanic eruption in Santorini.
Synolakis’ statements, delivered in Greek, were not presented in an alarmist manner but matter-of-fact, as he reminded journalists that Santorini has erupted three times in the 20th century—1925-1926, 1939-1941, and again in 1950.
In each case, there were no fatalities. “If it is going to happen, we will have many signs beforehand,” he assured.
The Scenarios Surrounding Santorini Earthquakes
Synolakis explained that since August 2024, the volcano has shown signs of activity, causing a 3 cm shift.
However, he cautioned, “This doesn’t mean we will have an eruption.” Since the earthquakes are becoming stronger and spreading geographically, he outlined three potential scenarios: “seismic swarms that ultimately lead to nothing, a larger earthquake, or a minor eruption of one of the area’s volcanoes.”
Based on the available data, Synolakis observed that “Seismologists have removed Santorini’s volcano from the equation, but nothing is certain, and it cannot be completely excluded at this stage.”
In previous interviews, Synolakis has also said Greece could even be witnessing the birth of a new volcano.
Gaps in Scientific Data
The scientist also pointed to a deeper issue in Greece—the lack of available scientific data, which is critical for monitoring seismic and environmental phenomena.
Greece “was unprepared in terms of measurements.” In an effort to improve infrastructure, Synolakis recently accompanied Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to oversee the installation of tidal gauges, which measure changes in sea level and wave patterns.
Photo: Tatiana Bolari/Eurokinissi
“In Greece, we haven’t prioritized environmental monitoring, including climate change measurements. Every town should have a weather station, and every island should have tidal gauges,” he stressed.
Frustrated by the country’s lack of scientific preparedness, Synolakis emphasized that a research vessel from the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research “should already be at Santorini” but it wasn’t.
A long-time advocate for upgrading Greece’s scientific infrastructure, he has also pushed for adopting Japan’s early earthquake detection system and expanding the country’s seismograph network.
