The US elections are underway and the teams of the two candidates have their eyes on the seven contested swing states–Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. 

But Pennsylvania is likely to be the state that decides the election.

Good Affairs data analyst George Trapalis explained to To Vima that Pennsylvania’s knife-edge polling and heap of electoral college votes may lead it to being the deciding state in this year’s election.

A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. With its 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania – the fifth most populous state– gets any candidate a good chunk of the way there. 

And while Pennsylvania’s polls put the margin of difference between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump within the spectrum of statistical error, other swing states look a tad bit more decisive.

“Trump appears to be a likely winner in three of the seven contested states, namely Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina,” said Trapalis. “With those states, Republicans are up to 262 electoral votes and need one more – but not Nevada, which has just 6 electoral votes – to elect a president”

As Trapalis points out, the margin may be minimal in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, but polls have been trending in favor of Trump in those states for about a month now.

On the other hand, Kamala Harris has gained a slim lead in Michigan and Wisconsin. “The latter is historically more contested while the former seems to be closer to the Democrats,” said Trapalis. “Those two states are leaning toward the Democrats but not with the same momentum as the other three are leaning towards the Republicans.”

So Pennsylvania is necessary for Harris to have a chance of winning, and likewise for Trump. “The Democrats have never won an election without Pennsylvania, though that doesn’t mean that winning it now would make them a sure winner,” said Trapalis.

In past elections, as Pennsylvania has gone, so has gone the country. President Joe Biden won the state by about 80,000 votes in 2020. Donald Trump won it by a mere 40,000 votes in 2016.

Thus the candidates have hence zeroed in on Pennsylvania, both spent their final campaign days speaking to supporters in the state. According to NPR, $1.2bn has been spent on political advertising in Pennsylvania, more than anywhere else in the country. 

Pennsylvania’s polls close at 8 p.m. ET, but it is likely the winner of Pennsylvania won’t be known even by Wednesday as counting continues.