As tension simmers in the Middle East and the 2024 Democratic National Convention approaches, the White House finds itself navigating a complex political landscape.
All eyes are on Doha, where critical negotiations concerning the Gaza conflict are ongoing. At the same time, Washington is gearing up for the Democratic convention in Chicago, a city that evokes memories of the turbulent 1968 convention, raising fears of renewed anti-war protests.
The stakes could not be higher. If the negotiations falter, renewed violence in Israel and across the Middle East could erupt just as President Biden and Vice President Harris are engaged in convention activities.
Despite these risks, there is cautious optimism in Washington following the conclusion of the Doha talks. The absence of Hamas from the negotiations did not overly alarm U.S. officials, as Egypt and Qatar have been representing the group, facilitating discussions indirectly.
The continuation of talks into Friday was seen as a promising development. President Biden told reporters in the Oval Office that progress toward a deal is closer than ever before, stating, “we might have something there.” He emphasized that while the agreement is not finalized, it is nearer than it was just three days ago.
In a joint statement, the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt described the recent discussions in Doha as “serious and constructive.” The statement noted that, with backing from Egypt and Qatar, the U.S. presented a bridging proposal to both parties, aligned with the principles set by President Biden on May 31, 2024. This proposal builds on the agreements reached over the past week and aims to close the remaining gaps for swift deal implementation.
Technical teams from the four countries will continue to work on the deal’s details in the coming days, according to the statement. More specifically, unresolved issues of the agreement include the logistics for extensive humanitarian aid to Gaza and specifics regarding the release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
American analysts believe Israel has largely achieved its military objectives, essentially degrading Hamas’s capabilities. Former President Donald Trump echoed this sentiment, recently urging Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “take the victory” and withdraw from Gaza to halt the ongoing bloodshed.
President Biden remains focused on securing a deal, viewing it as critical to de-escalating tensions in the Middle East and preventing a broader regional conflict. The outcome of these negotiations could significantly shape his foreign policy legacy.
A follow-up summit involving senior mediators and negotiators – CIA Director Bill Burns, the Qatari Prime Minister, the head of Israeli Mossad, and Egypt’s intelligence chief – will take place in Cairo before the end of next week, with the goal of finalizing the deal under the current terms.
Meanwhile, the State Department announced that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to Israel on Saturday to support ongoing efforts to finalize the Gaza ceasefire and hostage agreement. Blinken is expected to arrive in Israel on Sunday and meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday.
Looking Ahead
Laura Blumenfeld, an analyst at Johns Hopkins University, believes the broader objective is to advance Israel’s regional integration in exchange for establishing a Palestinian state. Speaking to Voice of America, she acknowledged that this is a distant goal but views the current negotiations as a crucial first step.
John Sitilides, a former Regional Coordinator for Southern Europe at the State Department’s Foreign Service Institute, cautions that U.S. policy toward Israel will not be determined solely by outcome of the upcoming presidential elections.
“It’s not just about who the president is,” he told To Vima. “Congress ultimately has the power of the purse. It decides, for example, whether there will be further arms shipments and what level of support we will offer if the conflict continues.”
