Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis congratulated Donald Trump on his election promptly, before it had been fully confirmed: “Congratulations Donald Trump on your election victory,” he wrote on X. “Greece looks forward to further deepening the strategic partnership between our two countries and working together on important regional and global issues.”
Mitsotakis has often referred to the “strategic” nature of Greece’s relationship with the U.S. Throughout his time as Prime Minister, Mitsotakis has carefully cultivated relationships with Americans on both sides of the aisle – meeting with presidents and politicians from both of America’s deeply divided political parties – in an effort to insulate Greece from the political shifts currently shaking the U.S.
“Greece has deep-rooted relations with the U.S.” said Greek government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis the morning after the U.S. elections. “The Prime Minister has channels of communication with both parties, which shows an effective diplomatic policy. It should be remembered that he was applauded by both parties in Congress, because he managed to strengthen Greece during a difficult period, and to align the country’s positions with those of the West.”
But even with this pre-existing relationship and the agreements binding Greece and the U.S., a Trump presidency is likely to bring an unpredictability and volatility to the global stage that could complicate things for Greece.
“Under both the Trump administration and the Biden administration, the Greek relationship with the United States of America improved,” said Spyros Economides, Associate Professor of International Relations and European Politics at the London School of Economics, and Coordinator of the Politics & Geopolitics Cluster at the school’s Hellenic Observatory Center. “So I think in this bilateral sense, it’s unlikely that we’ll see much variation in the relationship. But there’s always a caveat in the background that you never know what a Trump administration might do.”
Deep-Rooted Bilateral Relations
Over the past few years, any time Greek and U.S. officials have met up, they have congratulated each other on the strength of their bilateral relationship – one that both sides have classified as being at an “all-time high”. In January of 2020, then-president Donald Trump met with Prime Minister Mitsotakis, stating, “The relationship is really extraordinary, I would say. Right? It’s as good as it can get.”
Mitsotakis concurred, “You were right to point out that this relationship is the best it ever was,” before quickly adding, “But it can become even better.”
An almost identical exchange was rehashed in May 2022 during a meeting between Mitsotakis and Biden.
In these meetings with the presidents, with Trump’s secretary of state Mike Pomepo, and in a speech before the U.S. Congress in 2022, Mitsotakis underlined Greece’s positioning as a “pillar of stability” in the eastern Mediterranean. He has often name-checked the Souda Bay Naval Base on the island of Crete (which the U.S. has been granted long-term access to as a forward-operating location), and the LNG regasification facility in the northern city of Alexandroupolis (which will enable natural gas to flow into Eastern and Central Europe without involving Russia.)
But this strategic relationship is constructed on a quid pro quo basis, and Mitsotakis has been persistent in seeking what he wants from the U.S.,– which is enhanced defense and military collaboration in addition to general economic investment. The big concern – which he references both openly and through insinuation – is Greece’s neighbor, Turkey. Greece wants both material armaments and diplomatic support to ward off Turkish saber rattling, and to engage in some rattling of its own.
This balancing act has worked so far for Mitsotakis. During his terms in office, defense cooperation agreements have been signed, arms transfers agreed upon, and more meetings promised. Greece has entered the F-35 program to acquire American fighter jets, and has also secured promises with regard to several other American weapon systems. In 2019, the countries updated and re-signed their Mutual Defense Cooperation Agreement of 1990. These agreements are hard to wiggle out of, but the Greek premier certainly doesn’t want to rock the boat, or play favorites with one U.S. president or another.
“I think in the last 10 years what has happened is that the context of the eastern Mediterranean has increased in importance, and Greece in that particular context has become a much more valuable ally for the USA,” said Economides. “I think there’s a safety net there for Greece in that it has a series of agreements and arrangements in place with the United States of America on certain strategic and military issues, which I think any incoming president will find it hard to break.”
Surviving Unpredictability
What will be more difficult for Greece to navigate are the capricious decision-making methods of Donald Trump.
“Because of the unpredictability of what might happen in the Trump administration, the geopolitical context might change,” explained Economides. Trump could have a vastly different approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine – which he has said he is going to “end in a day”, or Israel’s war in Gaza. He has frequently said that the U.S. should pull out of NATO and waffled about observing commitments to the defense alliance. He could continue to cozy up to authoritarians such as Vladimir Putin or Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (the latter being a relationship of particular concern to Athens.) And all of these decisions may be made by impulse or communicated in a way that states are not equipped to respond to. Mercurial decision-making on a global stage could easily create a vortex that pulls other actors in.
“These changes could have implications for Greece as well,” said Economides. “But that’s not something that’s necessarily to do with a bilateral relationship between Greece and the U.S. It’s more about the moving parts and the consequences of the moving parts which at this stage, we simply don’t know enough about.”
Another moving part is Trump’s approach to international trade. The U.S. president-elect has warned that he wants to implement steep tariffs on all goods imported to the U.S., which would certainly hit items traded with the European Union, and perhaps cause tensions between the U.S. and the bloc. “I think the uncertainty in economic terms is going to be horrible for the Europeans,” said Economides, “because uncertainty makes the markets jittery. And once the markets are jittery, the consequence will be felt across the whole of Europe.”
A Normalization of Vitriol
Still harder to measure is how Trump’s prolific rhetoric of hate and totalitarian tendencies will impact people outside the country he has promised to “make great again.” What will it mean for people migrating anywhere in the world to have one of the great powers forever claiming that migrants are a danger and a threat? What will it mean for women or LGBTQ people worldwide, when one of the most populous countries in the world is slowly slicing away their access to healthcare? What could be unleashed now that a leader labeled a “fascist” by his own former staff is once again commander-in-chief of arguably the most powerful military in the world?
The U.S. is bounding towards a decidedly more far-right future. The precedents that will be set in that future, and their knock-on effects cannot be predicted precisely. But even if the epicenter of this vision is planted in Washington, the aftershocks of its roots spreading will be felt in Athens.
