After nearly a month of incoming US President Donald Trump’s shock and awe strategy, shaking up most of Washington’s global alliances – including those with the European Union as regards tariffs and the stance toward Ukraine – the only direct indication of the president’s stance on Greece is the nomination of Kimberley Guilfoyle as Ambassador to Athens.

She will be the second non-career diplomat to serve in Athens, after long-time Democratic Party backer George Tsounis.

Her close ties to the president and his family could mean that she will have his ear at possibly critical geopolitical junctures, including potential Greek-Turkish disputes or even conflict over the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the two countries.

Guilfoyle has long been a fervent Trump supporter and for years very close to the president’s family.

Trump’s pick of the former fiancée of his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., came straight on the heels of the couple’s breakup in December.

But she was for years an important ally and confidant of the incoming president.

Before his election and her appointment, Trump had lavished praise on Guilfoyle for her loyalty – Trump’s highest value – and abilities.

Indicatively, she headed the fundraising operation in Trump’s 2020 campaign, in which he lost to Joe Biden.

“Kimberley has been a close friend and ally for many years,” he noted on social media.

He has cited her long-term experience as a prosecutor, a media personality, and in politics as solid qualifications for her new job.

New envoy close to Trump, his family

After serving as a prosecutor, first in San Francisco and then for four years in Los Angeles, for over a decade she hosted shows on Fox News, the main media pillar of Trumpism in America.

Her close ties to the president and his family will likely mean that she will have his ear at possibly critical geopolitical junctures, including potential Greek-Turkish disputes over the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the two countries in the Eastern Mediterranean.

A naval clash in the area was narrowly averted in 2020 after an intense stand-off with protracted brinkmanship.

Turkey much higher than Greece on Trump agenda

At the current geopolitical juncture, US-Turkey relations are an inordinately higher priority than those with Greece, primarily because of the need for cooperation in Syria, in which Ankara has sweeping influence and sway over the current “interim government”.

Turkey has clearly stated revisionist intentions, articulated directly by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – who fancies himself as the regional overlord – who has made repeated pronouncements about the Ottoman Empire’s control of the territory for centuries.

Elective affinities

Trump has elective affinities with leaders that have an authoritarian strongman profile, such as Erdogan, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and far-right Hungarian PM Viktor Orban.

That cannot but prove to be an advantage for Turkey in pursuing its strategic regional goals.

One can expect a deeper inter-personal bond of mutual respect, as Trump already has referred to Erdogan as “a friend” and described him as “very smart”

Trump, Turkey, Syria and EEZs

Trump has called the rapid-fire toppling of the Assad regime as a “hostile takeover” of Syria by Turkey – though it is unclear if in this case that has a negative connotation – in collaboration with Syrian “interim” leader Ahmet al-Sharaa’s Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of the Nusrah Front, once Al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch.

HTS has for years been designated by the US as a terrorist organisation, and Syria’s strongman has asked the US to remove it from the list.

With Trump pondering a withdrawal of its 2,000 US troops from Syria, leading to a possible betrayal of America’s Kurdish allies (in their fight against the Islamic State), Ankara will have an open playing field to decimate them in northeastern Syria, further deepening Ankara’s evolving suzerainty over the country.

It is unclear whether a highly revisionist Turkey, with its sweeping power over the country, may consider annexation of, the northeastern Syria Kurdish enclave.

Impact of Turkey-Syria ties on Greece

What is certain is that Turkey-Syria relations will have a significant impact on Greece, as regards a likely bilateral agreement that would aim to limit Athens’ exploitation of its seabed energy resources.

The symbiotic relationship between the Turkish and Syrian leaderships is expected to lead to a delimitation of the two countries’ Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs, in which countries have exclusive hydrocarbons exploration rights in their respective seabeds) which would likely result in a major new encroachment of the EEZs of Greece and Cyprus.

A strong precedent for such an eventuality is the November, 2019, Turkey-Libya memorandum, which delimited the EEZ’s of the two countries, even though they are not even contiguous.

The memorandum was condemned by regional states and the international community, but Turkey’s strong influence in Libya has, nonetheless, grown.

US-Greece strategic partnership

US and Greek leaders and officials have not tired in reiterating, with good reason, that bilateral relations are at their highest point ever. They have deepened greatly both under the current government and the preceding left-wing SYRIZA government.

The US has also strongly supported and lauded the development of the Greece-Cyprus-Israel strategic partnership.

The long-term strengthening of US-Greece ties is in large measure due to the two countries’ consistently expanding military cooperation.

The updated US-Greece Mutual Defence Cooperation Agreement that came into force in May, 2022, under the administrations of Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis and US President Joe Biden, greatly expanded and cemented the “strategic partnership” of the two countries.

It satisfied all US demands, including a base in Alexandroupolis, which has been critical in channelling arms to Ukraine throughout the ongoing war with Russia.

For the first time ever, the agreement has an indefinite duration, a clause that stirred strong opposition criticism.

Greece’s enormous strategic value to the US is exemplified mainly (but not only) by the geostrategically crucial US naval and air base at Souda Bay, Crete, which was expanded in the last revision of the MDCA.

It is of vital importance as regards the force of US power in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Greece’s value as a top US arms buyer

The importance of Athens to the US is also reflected by its enormous spending on US arms, most recently with its entry into Lockheed’s 5th generation F-35 fighter jet programme, in which Greece has agreed to buy initially 20 F-35s, with a whopping 3.5bn dollar price tag, along with an option to acquire 20 more.

The deal will be a huge burden on the Greek economy, but is considered necessary for improving strategic military balances with Ankara and gaining an advantage over an increasingly revisionist and expansionist Turkey.

The US counterbalanced the advantage that the deal would afford Greece with an agreement to substantially update Turkey’s fleet of F-16 war planes.