Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is to face a two-month politically crucial period, during which his decisions and strategic moves may prove critical across various domains, as he approaches the midpoint of his second term in office by the end of January.
The 2025 budget vote, in mid-December, is the first crucial political event. This year’s budget holds particular significance, not only because it is the first to align with the new European fiscal framework but also due to several underlying political factors.
Despite no apparent threat to the government’s majority, the budget vote will serve as a barometer for the sentiment within the ruling New Democracy (ND) party. Recently, some ND lawmakers have expressed their dissent against government policies.
The recent election of Donald Trump in the United States has already reflected sentiments within ND’s dynamics, with some party members perceiving Trump’s victory as a signal for a potential political realignment, urging a shift in government policies.
These sentiments quickly prompted Mitsotakis to respond with emphatic public statements on issues like border protection and a rejection of so-called “woke culture.”
It remains to be seen how these interventions will affect the cohesion of the ND parliamentary group, especially after the shock caused by the recent expulsion of former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, who directly questioned Mitsotakis regarding the conservative party’s policies on national matters with a focus on Greek-Turkish relations. Samaras accused the prime minister of steering ND away from the party’s traditionally ‘right values’.
Thus, the government is expected to focus on issues, such as the Greek-Turkish dialogue, which resonate with a significant segment of ND voters, who may be eyeing more right-wing political parties.
Another crucial element of the upcoming period will be the Greek-Turkish relations, with the next meeting between Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan scheduled in Ankara as part of the High-Level Cooperation Council in January of 2025. However, the timing of this meeting may be adjusted due to Trump’s election, from whom both sides expect tangible policy signals once he officially takes office.
The inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20 stands as a pivotal date in the immediate political timeline, with his early actions expected to cause repercussions both economically and geopolitically if he follows through on his campaign promises.
A potential trade war with Europe could significantly impact Greece that will lead to policy adjustments, while developments in Ukraine and the Israeli-Arab conflict could be greatly impactful.
What is more, recent public opinion polls have revealed a shifting political landscape in Greece, with the center-left PASOK party gaining momentum. This trend is causing concern within the government, primarily because PASOK can potentially attract centrist voters from ND.
This anxiety has developed into a communication strategy to discredit PASOK, often branding it as a “green SYRIZA.”
Many of these political dynamics are expected to influence Mitsotakis’s decision regarding the election of the country’s President. According to sources, by the end of January, it will be clear whether he will propose the re-election of current President Katerina Sakellaropoulou or support a new candidate.
Such a decision would signal Mitsotakis’s broader political intentions, either seeking a degree of consensus, especially with PASOK, or choosing a more insular ND stance to avoid internal friction.
