In the next few hours, history in the United States will have been made whatever the outcome of the 2024 presidential elections. At the same time, however, life could change overnight for the LGBTQ+ community depending on who’s heading to the White House.
Some analysts are suggesting that LGBTQ+ voters may just be able to tip the scales in favor of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, especially in swing states.
High Voter Turnout
Historically, LGBTQ+ voters have shown strong support for Democratic candidates and have demonstrated high voter turnout. According to a Pew Research Center 2013 survey, approximately 60% of LGBTQ+ respondents favored the Democratic Party, while fewer than 10% supported the Republicans. More recent data underscores this trend; a GLAAD study revealed that LGBTQ+ voter turnout in 2020 reached 93% – much higher compared to the national average of 55% – 81% voted for Democrat Joe Biden, and 25% were first-time voters.
That said, analysts are expecting LGBTQ+ voters, as well as minority and women, to possibly swing the US presidential election results in four of the seven swing states: Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan – home to a significant number of LGBTQ+ voters.
The 2024 presidential elections have been dubbed as the “most anti-LGBTQ” in recent history with critical issues at stake, including protections for LGBTQ+ rights, inclusive healthcare, housing affordability, and mental health provisions.
Inclusive Healthcare, Housing, Employment Concerns
Photo: Reuters/Cheney Orr
According to data in LGBTQ Nation collected in the field by journalist Nico Lang, housing security is a pressing need, especially for families who’ve been forced to relocate to more inclusive areas to safeguard their rights. Additionally, trans and nonbinary individuals in states with strict voter ID laws may face voting obstacles. And lastly, LGBTQ+ activists are also expressing concerns about the impact of less inclusive laws on mental health and the well-being of trans, queer individuals and vulnerable youth should Trump win the elections.
Trump’s current campaign is in line with the conservative-supported “Project 2025” initiative which aims to limit LGBTQ+ protections under federal civil rights law affecting healthcare, education, and employment. His agenda if elected includes rolling back LGBTQ+ protections, particularly for transgender individuals, restricting inclusive policies for LGBTQ+ communities, and intensifying restrictions on gender-affirming healthcare and civil rights enforcement.
According to The Conversation, which cites past polling data, if LGBTQ+ voters turn up in high numbers on Tuesday, they may just be able to swing the election results in favor of Harris in these four states.
As America went to the polls on Tuesday, the country’s LGBTQ+ advocates and groups have taken actions to ensure queer voices will be heard whatever the outcome. Pointing to the growing significance of this demographic, a 2022 Human Rights Campaign report found that by 2030, one in seven voters is expected to identify as LGBTQ+.
