Political reverberations from an assassin’s failed attempt to kill former US president and GOP contender Donald Trump last month were, as was to be expected, felt around the world. History now shows that incumbent Joe Biden dropped out of the race days later, passing on the Democratic Party baton to his vice-president Kamala Harris in the “blink of an eye”, by Washington standards.

The attempt on Trump’s life – which left one bystander dead and another two critically injured – and the subsequent prospect of a Kamala Harris presidency juxtaposed on the possibility of a “MAGA redux”, would dominate the pundits’ attention and pronouncements in Greece, as well.

Much of the Mediterranean country’s foreign policy “calculus” includes an American “factor”. Indeed, in spheres such as defense, Washington can often have an equal or even greater impact on policy than the European Union.

In scrutinizing the two possible American presidents come January 2025, and speaking less than a month after the abrupt transformation of the US presidential race, geopolitical analyst Sotiris Serbos said Donald Trump’s stance vis-à-vis Ukraine will have a crucial impact on US relations with the EU – and, by extension, with Greece.

Prof. Sotiris Serbos, an associate professor at the Democritus University of Thrace

Serbos, an associate professor of international politics at the Democritus University of Thrace and a candidate in the recent European Parliament elections, referred to difficulty in gauging exactly what a second Trump presidency would mean for US foreign policy. “He could take revenge of a sort on the (US foreign policy) establishment; he may possibly rely entirely on loyalists this time, all the way.”

Turning to a possible Kamala Harris administration, Serbos predicts that she and her top aides will work with the State Department’s career diplomats and bureaucracy to achieve more or less the same policy goals as the current administration, which include energy diversification. The latter, he underlined, coincides with Greece’s priorities in SE Europe and the east Mediterranean.

“As a Greek, however, I would want something more, as I have more reasons, for instance, to push for an understanding with Turkey (Turkiye),” he said, adding that the Biden administration essentially “compartmentalized” the multi-faceted and at times strained relations with the latter.

Asked about the relationship between Athens and the previous Trump administration (2016-2020), Serbos said ties were notably upgraded under former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his deputy, former Assistant Secretary of State Wess Mitchell.

Ukraine, Middle East will be inherited crises, no matter who wins

However, he said that no matter which candidate ends up winning the race come November, the next US administration will inherit “extremely serious crises in Ukraine and the Middle East; and since Greek-Turkish relations are more-or-less in equilibrium, they won’t be pressing.”

On her part, Maria Gavouneli, the Director General of the Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), an Athens-based think-tank, touched on the widely held perception that Donald Trump enjoys a particularly cozy relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the dominant political figure in 21st-century Turkey.

“They’ve done business together; if Donald Trump’s elected and he believes they can do business together again, they’ll talk directly…Trump has no business links to (Kyriakos) Mitsotakis (the Greek PM),” she said, recalling the Trump family’s high-profile business ties to Turkey.

Prof. Maria Gavouneli, the Director General of the Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP).

Given Kamala Harris’ perceived inexperience in US foreign policy and global geopolitics, something Trump supporters are playing up, Prof. Gavouneli said that, if elected, the current VP will rely on traditional diplomats, “who know the game; who know how the system works.”

The professor of international law at the National & Kapodistrian University of Athens also said the native Californian has strong ties to Greek-American politicians and ethnic Greek communities in the “Golden State”, including Lt.-Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, an early 2026 gubernatorial candidate.

Sizing up a potential second Trump administration, she predicted that, if elected, he will “prefer loyalty this time around.” Regarding the current campaign situation, she said: “Let’s see what happens with the economy… If Americans face a recession, then Kamala Harris will have problems.”

Another Trump administration: ‘significant opportunities at high risk’

Turning to the view from the other side of the Aegean, Özgür Ünlühisarcikli, the regional director (Turkiye) of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told To Vima English Edition that, officially, “Ankara doesn’t really have a horse in this race, as it doesn’t expect a breakthrough in the relationship, regardless of who wins in November.”

At the same time, he emphasized that a possible second Trump administration – after a four-year interlude – “would present significant opportunities at high risk.”

“Proving to be kindred spirits, Trump and Erdoğan met nine times in person during the former’s first tenure as president; in contrast, Biden and Erdoğan only met twice and then on the side lines of other events. A Trump administration would be more likely to suspend cooperation in Syria with the YPG, which Turkey sees as an offshoot of the PKK. While it was the Trump administration that imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, the US president was very reluctant to do so at the time and would be more likely than his opponent to remove them if elected.”

Conversely, he said a second Trump administration would be more inclined to start “trade wars”, something that could have negative consequences for Turkey, with its open trade policy. “Trump would double down on unconditional US support for Israel and, by putting maximum pressure on Iran, would increase the risk of a regional war in Turkey’s neighborhood.”

Özgür Ünlühisarcikli, the regional director, in Turkey, of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

On Kamala Harris and her image in Turkey, Ünlühisarcikli said that “as she was kept in the shadows during Biden’s tenure, Harris is yet not very well known here. She was not given a chance to build her leadership profile, and was seen as a low-profile candidate in the beginning. But this is changing now…On the other hand, voters around the world remain attracted to populist leaders who defy the establishment, and many people here in Turkey also see Trump through this lens.”

Asked if he believes the mainstream press in Turkey is adequately covering this specific – and now unique – US presidential campaign, Ünlühisarcikli replied:

“Turkish novelist Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar had once said ‘Turkey doesn’t give her children the opportunity to be occupied by anything other than itself.’ I think this quote is a very good reflection of how the wider public in Tukey is observing the US elections, or not. There is so much going on in Turkey and on its borders that Turkish citizens cannot look towards the horizon. There is also a prevailing sentiment that whoever wins in November, the American approach to Turkey will not change.”