In Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, self-identified independents turned out, accounting for a larger share of voters than Democrats and matching Republicans, according to Edison Research exit polls.
This marks the first time since Edison started their exit polls in 2004 that independents have surpassed one of the two main political parties in turnout. Data from Edison’s exit polling showed that on Tuesday independents made up 34% of voters, Republicans 34%, and Democrats came in at 32%.
Despite their “independent” label, most independents still tend to lean politically toward one of the two major parties in America’s two-party system. A 2018 Pew Research Center survey indicated that 81% of independents had a preference for either the Republican or Democratic party. Around 17% leaned Democratic, 13% leaned Republican, and just 7% remained without party leaning.
However these independent voters are still more volatile than those registered with a party. An analysis of American National Election Studies (ANES) data from 1972 to 2020, published in Politics and Policy, found that independents can show notable swings in their political loyalty across elections.
Independent turnout is often lower than that of party-registered voters. The 2018 Pew study found that 38% of Americans identify as independent, compared to 31% as Democrats and 26% as Republicans. However, only about half of Democratic-leaning independents (48%) reported voting, slightly less than the 59% of Democrats. Similarly, 54% of GOP-leaning independents voted, versus 61% of registered Republicans.
As with the 2020 election, yesterday’s exit polls showed that independents leaned toward the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris. Still, Donald Trump made gains with this volatile group. About 50% of independents reported voting for Harris, while 45% voted for Trump—an improvement of four percentage points for Trump from 2020.
