Greek seismologist and former director of the Athens Geodynamic Institute, Akis Tselentis, took to Facebook to “set the record straight” on his assessment of the ongoing seismic activity around Santorini and the growing tensions between Greek scientists, politicians, industry, and the media.

On Tuesday, in a move that shocked public opinion but was met with a dismissive response from the Greek government, Tselentis resigned from Greece’s National Committee for Seismic Risk Assessment—a body monitoring the ongoing seismic activity in the Cyclades—citing political interference in scientific work.

In his post on facebook, which is in Greek, Tselentis says:

“After a careful analysis and evaluation of the available seismological data, I have reached the following conclusions:

  • From the very beginning, when the prevailing opinion was that the earthquakes were 100% unrelated to volcanic activity (referring to Kolumbo), I stated that there is a reciprocal relationship between faults and rising magma.
  • Yesterday, I presented a diagram illustrating the seismic sequence so far, showing that the total seismic energy released is equivalent to a 6.0 magnitude earthquake.
  • However, I emphasized that this does not necessarily mean anything, and that the claims of a gradual weakening of the sequence—pushed by political figures and hotel industry interests—are not valid.
  • The reason is that we are not dealing with a single fault gradually losing its seismic potential through small tremors. Instead, we are observing a seismogenic volume, a region containing numerous small faults, each with a maximum seismic potential of approximately 5.0 magnitude due to their size. This explains the high seismic activity with thousands of recorded earthquakes.
  • As magma rises from the volcano, it exerts pressure on the upper geological layers, triggering these multiple small faults.
  • In response to the question of whether a 6.0 magnitude earthquake is possible, my answer is YES.
  • This is because the seismogenic volume ends near a 25 km-long fault, which I describe as “oblique-vertical” for easier understanding. If this fault is activated (which is highly possible), it could generate an earthquake of approximately 6.0 magnitude.
  • The worst-case scenario would be the activation of the major Amorgos fault, which runs in a southwest-northeast direction. However, at present, there are no indications that this is happening. Based on my calculations, the stress exerted on this fault by current seismic activity (Coulomb stress, for those familiar with the term) is negligible. Nonetheless, while I hope it does not happen, activation of this fault remains a possible scenario, in which case we would be looking at a much larger earthquake.
  • I deliberately avoid mentioning specific magnitudes because certain sensationalist websites would isolate that information, twist it, and use it to exploit public fear for clicks. These ruthless individuals have done this repeatedly by distorting my statements.
  • Both scenarios could trigger a tsunami.“