On the eve of a presidential election of old, the great American President Abraham Lincoln warned that “a house divided against itself cannot stand.” It was 1858 and a bloody Civil War was soon to follow.
Strangely enough, his description is also a perfect fit today for a nation that increasingly resembles the “Divided States of America”.
And which is being called upon to elect its new President over the next 48 hours in a state of unprecedented polarization.
No one can be sure of the outcome in advance. The margins are so tiny and the polls so fragile, the only thing we can predict with absolute certainty is that the division will not end when the voting does.
The most authoritative polling companies and most serious news organizations have avoided or refused to play the guessing game.
Either way, whatever the outcome, half of America will have beaten the other half. And one can only wonder how “a house divided against itself” can survive for the duration in the modern world.
Except it’s anything but irrelevant which “half of America” prevails. On the one side, we have a conventional candidate with her all qualities and her flaws. And on the other hand, a chaotic candidacy whose most serious defect is the candidate himself.
Of course, America is a great country and a republic with deep democratic foundations. Looking on the bright side, we can say that no matter who’s elected, they will find their way. Only it won’t be the same way.
And this is an unwelcome element of uncertainty for anyone who is aware not only of America’s internal conflicts and divisions, but also of the role it has assumed in the international system.
With two wars ongoing, in Ukraine and in the Middle East, this may not be the best time to weaken or dismantle this system. Even more so when Europe (the other anchor of international stability) is not at its best, either.
All the same, everyone on the planet will have to live with what the citizens of American decide. That is the very corner stone of democracy, and I don’t see it being abolished in the days ahead.
Still, the uncertainty and instability will not pass easily or quickly. Lincoln’s “house divided” will one day embrace all his children once more, but not before it has made peace with itself.
