In its latest assessment, Oxford Economics has analyzed the economic risk landscape of 164 economies, including Greece, shedding light on its standing amidst global economic dynamics. According to the findings, Greece’s overall economic risk is evaluated at 4.7 out of 10, positioning the country at 63rd place.
This rating, marginally lower than six months prior, is one of the highest amongst developed economies, notably exceeding the European average of 3 out of 10.
Market demand risk for Greece remains elevated at 5 out of 10, surpassing Europe’s mean of 3.3, a reflection of persistent challenges stemming from high public debt and subdued per capita GDP. Within the European context, Greece ranks 58th in this category.
Similarly, market cost risk registers at 4 out of 10, above the European average of 2.8, with Greece securing the 39th spot, highlighting the lingering aftermath of the economic crisis.
Despite improvement in fiscal management, sovereign credit risk for Greece sits at 4.2 out of 10, positioning the nation 68th globally. Nevertheless, the report highlights the positive trajectory of fiscal balances.
However, the report points to a persistent challenge in the form of commercial credit risk, which remains high at 8 out of 10, ranking Greece 104th internationally. This sheds light on ongoing hurdles in private sector repayment, particularly evident in the prevalence of non-performing loans within the banking sector, surpassing those of other Eurozone members.
Looking ahead, Oxford Economics emphasizes that Greece’s long-term growth prospects hinge significantly on the successful implementation of structural reforms. By fostering enhanced productivity and boosting competitiveness, the nation stands to realize a notable upturn in annual potential output, projected to rise by 1.5% between 2023 and 2033. This marks a substantial improvement from the previous decade’s stagnant growth rate of -0.3%.
