The Greek economy has a 90% probability of being upgraded by Moody’s in 2024, according to US-based investment bank JP Morgan, with the anticipated date possibly being March 15th. JP Morgan estimates the likelihood of upgrades from other rating agencies to be 30%.
The assessment is part of JP Morgan’s analysis released today regarding potential rating changes in 2024 across the Eurozone, with the leading banking institution giving the upcoming upgrade of the Greek economy a prominent position.
Generally, JP Morgan expects that rating actions for Eurozone countries will be limited in 2024, given the several positive assessments in the Eurozone during 2023. Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Austria benefited from improved prospects and/or rating upgrades.
JP Morgan’s main scenario posits that Italy is unlikely to be downgraded, while risks overall remain balanced, given the estimation that the Meloni government will maintain a prudent stance regarding fiscal policy and the EU.
Possible upgrades could result from better-than-expected macroeconomic and fiscal outlooks supported by funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility. Downgrade risks could be linked to more pronounced-than-expected macroeconomic and unpredictable political risks.
JP Morgan highlights the high probability of Moody’s upgrading Greece to an investment grade in 2024. It also sees significant probabilities (>=50%) for further upgrades in Cyprus (S&P and Moody’s), Ireland (Fitch), and Portugal (S&P).
There is also a low probability (~30%) of possible downgrades in Belgium (Fitch) and France (S&P).
