The Greek economy appears to be regressing, a sentiment echoed in recent reports from both Moody’s and JP Morgan. These reports emphasize growing concerns regarding the trajectory of the Greek economy.
A number of factors lead to skepticism and a negative outlook. According to the Panhellenic Exporters Association, instability in international markets, high interest rates, and disruptions from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have begun to affect the efforts of Greek businesses to expand abroad.
Illustrative of this is the fact that Greek exports continued to decline ending the year with an 8.5% decrease. According to analysis from the Panhellenic Exporters Association and the Center for Export Research and Studies (KEEM), exports for the period Jan. to Dec. 2023 decreased by a total of 4.7 billion euros, reaching 50.41 billion euros from 55.12 billion euros in 2022.
Meanwhile, concerns also prevail in the field of investments. The latest data from ELSTAT for the growth of 2023 showed that investments, particularly in fixed assets, decreased (-5.7% annually and -2.6% quarterly) during the fourth quarter of 2023, for the first time since the corresponding quarter of 2020.
Fixed asset investments, vital for economic transformation, only saw a 4% increase, falling short of the government’s 7% target, which indicates the government’s failure to meet its own benchmarks. Additionally, in 2023, Greece ranked last in Europe for investment participation in GDP.
At the same time, concern was also sparked by last year’s sharp decline in Foreign Direct Investment, with preliminary data from ELSTAT showing a decrease of 40% compared to 2022. In 2023, Foreign Direct Investments totaled 4.48 billion euros, essentially returning to 2019 levels of 4.47 billion euros.
