The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicts growth of up to 2.4% for the Greek economy in 2024 while it forecasts a growth of 2.6% for 2025, in its latest report on the outlook for the countries it finances.
According to the report, the economic performance of Greece remained strong in 2024, with its GDP increasing by 2.1% year-on-year in the first quarter and by 2.3% in the second quarter, bolstered by private consumption and fixed capital investments.
the Greek economy is on track for another strong tourism season in 2024, likely surpassing last year’s record performance. Tourist arrivals increased by 15.5% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
Labor market conditions also continued to improve in the first half of this year, as the unemployment rate fell to 9.6% in June, the lowest in 15 years.
The country’s budget recorded a surplus of 0.9% of GDP in the first five months of 2024, slightly higher than the 0.6% in the same period last year, due to higher tax revenues, as noted in EBRD’s report.
Conversely, public debt stood at 161.9% of GDP at the end of 2023, remaining the highest in Europe, but dropped further this year due to the strong increase in nominal GDP and the primary budget surplus.
Inflation also decreased in the first half of 2024, averaging 3% year-on-year, but the core rate remained relatively high and persistent (3.3% in June 2024).
Finally, the report points out that Greece has made progress regarding the implementation of projects funded by the Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF), mitigating the downside risks stemming from global and regional disruptions, weaknesses in key export markets, and climate change-related disasters.
By July 2024, Greece had received 14.9 billion euros from the RRF which corresponds to 41% of the total available amount of 36 billion euros, placing it above the EU average in terms of absorption.
