After a ‘disastrous’ 2023 that drove olive oil prices to record highs, Greece’s olive oil industry is on edge due to the drought-like conditions this past summer, with producers hoping for rain, according to OT.

The tough 2023 harvest caused olive oil prices to spike 56% from July 2023 to July 2024, but prices seem to be gradually declining in the wholesale market.

That being said, it is too soon for consumers to see lower price tags on their olive oil, as the industry is holding its breath for rain to be sure that 2024 will see a partical recovery in olive oil production levels in Greece.

Impact of Climate Change on Production

The first signs aren’t very promising, according to the Vice President of the Heraklion Agricultural Cooperative Union, Myron Chiletzakis.

In an interview on MEGA TV, Chiletzakis said,”Climate change has affected Europe and the Mediterranean.”

Talking about production levels, Chiletzakis explained that 2023 was a poor year and the 2024 harvest looks to be 50% higher than 2023, but that it is still less than it should be.

“Unfortunately, climate change is impacting Greek olive groves. About 80% of them have water supply issues. Two years ago, we produced 350,000 tons of olive oil. This year, we will be lucky if we reach 200,000 tons. The recent bad weather hit areas that produce olive oil with hailstorms, which damaged the olives and injured the fruit,” he added.

2024 Olive Oil Prices in Greece

Crete is the number one producer of olive oil, and it has a major water issue, reminded Chiletzakis.

“The price of olive oil has dropped for producers, and is currently at 7.50 euros, but it hasn’t dropped for consumers. If it doesn’t rain in the coming months, we might start seeing olive oil as a luxury. By October 15th, we’ll have a full picture of the price of olive oil. If it doesn’t rain in September and October, no producer will go to harvest the olives,” warns Chiletzakis.

Hammering home the severity of price increases, OT notes that in November 2022 olive oil cost between 5.50-5.80 euros per liter , while this September prices range between 11.50-16.00 euros per liter.

A European Phemonenon

The surge in olive oil prices isn’t limited to Greece.

Eurostat reports that from January 2023 to February 2024, olive oil prices rose 70% in Portugal, 62% in Spain, 49% in Cyprus, and 63% in Greece.

Spain saw production levels drop 18% to 107 million liters of olive oil from January 2023 to January 2024, but boosted its sunflower oil production 25% to 179 million liters of oil over the same period.

Chiletzakis notes that “Unfortunately, dietary habits are changing, and dishes traditionally made with olive oil are changing in flavor. The Spanish, who are the largest consumers of olive oil, have reduced their consumption by 80%,” the producer noted.