A new study headed by researchers at Delft University in the Netherlands and published in Scientific Reports reveals detailed predictions regarding the effects of climate change on European Economies.
They warn that “climate change threatens economic development globally, with distinct disparities in accelerating risks across regions. Particularly, climate-induced sea-level rise [and] its destructive potential impacts areas where productive capital and population cluster: coastal cities and regions.”
According to the report, approximately 44% of the EU and UK population lives within 50 kilometers of the sea and is thus at risk of flooding. Moreover, coastal areas contribute almost 40% of Europe’s Gross Domestic Product, while 75% of Europe’s international trade volume is dependent on maritime travel.
The team, which includes Greek postdoctoral researcher Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis, modeled possible economic impacts of rising sea levels for 271 regions in Europe by 2100, “according to a scenario of high emissions and without the implementation of new coastal protection measures after 2015.”
The results estimated that “a high-end scenario against a no-climate-impact baseline suggests a GDP loss of 1.26% (€871.8 billion) for the whole EU & UK. ”
Areas like Venice and Emilia-Romagna in Italy, the province of Western Pomerania in Poland, and coastal regions Belgium, Greece, the UK and western France, will face the brunt of the damage losing 9.56–20.84% of their GDP, while inland regions may actually see an increase of GDP, albeit small (0-1.13%), due to movement of capital and displacement of demand to non-coast regions.
Chatzivasileiadis predicts that rising sea levels in Greece would lead to significant damages in almost all its coastal regions by the end of the century, with the most affected areas being Central Greece (-6.88%) and the Northern Aegean (-6.06%). Western Macedonia, the only region not bordering the sea, would see an increase in GDP of about 0.87%.
Damage caused by sea level rises could cost the EU and UK economies up to 872 billion Euros in total by the end of the century, according to a modelling study published in @SciReports: https://t.co/mkPKzkWuSv
— Springer Nature (@SpringerNature) January 18, 2024
